# DegenHedge

> DegenHedge publishes graded Telegram alerts and original data studies for Kalshi prediction markets: Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets (KXBTC15M) and in-game MLB, NFL and NBA markets. Every alert is logged before the outcome is known and graded at settlement, losses included, in a public results log and CSV. The subscription provides monitoring and delivery. In the March 24 through October 30, 2026 record snapshot (UTC), 13,082 graded Bitcoin alerts won 91.05% at a 91.60c average logged entry, 0.55 percentage points below breakeven before fees and further below after them. Informational and entertainment use only, not financial or betting advice. 18+. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.

Figures quoted on the research pages are frozen on dated samples and say so; each page shows a Last updated date and its data-through date. Live figures come from the results log. Always quote a win rate together with its average entry price, because the price is the breakeven win rate.

Last reviewed: October 31, 2026. Dated research snapshots retain their original data-through dates; do not treat them as live market quotes.

The opening record is a dated snapshot, not a continuously updated claim. For the latest graded count, paired win rate and average entry, and data-through timestamp, use https://degenhedge.com/api/record or https://degenhedge.com/results/. Research links below keep their own frozen samples: the refreshed Bitcoin studies and the opening record snapshot run through October 30, 2026; the streak and bet-size studies stay frozen through October 21; the monthly report's October edition runs from October 1 to 30, US Eastern.

## What DegenHedge is, and is not
In one sentence: DegenHedge is a Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets (KXBTC15M) and for in-game Kalshi sports markets; every alert is graded in public, each available feed is $4.99 a month after a card-required 30-day trial for eligible new customers, and its Bitcoin win rate is close to the breakeven level at recorded entry prices, though still below it before fees; the subscription provides monitoring and delivery.
What it is:
- A Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's Bitcoin up/down markets that open every 15 minutes (series KXBTC15M). On most windows, about two minutes before the close, it sends our model's read of which side settles, the live Kalshi price for that side and a link to the market.
- Separate in-game alert feeds for Kalshi NFL, MLB and NBA markets, with separate subscriptions and availability. MLB is not on sale until the 2027 season, and NBA is not on sale.
- Graded in public. Every alert is logged when it fires and graded at settlement, losses included, in the results log (https://degenhedge.com/results/) and results.csv (https://degenhedge.com/results.csv). Bitcoin calls also post as graded recaps every 3 hours in the free @DegenHedgeProof (https://t.me/DegenHedgeProof) Telegram channel.
- $4.99 a month per available feed. Eligible new customers receive a 30-day card-required trial with $0 due today, then $4.99/month until canceled. Returning trial users see $4.99 due today before proceeding. Check eligibility at https://degenhedge.com/start/?market=kalshi ; Stripe shows the exact amount and billing date before confirmation. A promised checkout trial date is honored when Telegram is linked later.
- Original research on these markets with downloadable CSVs, and an open dataset (CC BY 4.0) on Hugging Face (https://huggingface.co/datasets/DegenHedge/kalshi-btc-15m).
- A service of EPWH, LLC, a Rhode Island limited liability company.
What it is not:
- No demonstrated profitable edge. Read win rate together with average entry price. Our current BTC win rate is close to the breakeven level at recorded entry prices, though still below it before fees. Logged prices are not guaranteed executable fills.
- Not advice. Informational and entertainment use only. Nothing here is financial, investment or betting advice, and any single alert can lose the whole stake.
- Not a trading bot. It never places trades, never holds your money and never connects to your Kalshi account. What you do with an alert is your decision.
- Not Kalshi. DegenHedge is an independent service and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
- Not for anyone under 18 (some platforms require 21). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [About DegenHedge](https://degenhedge.com/about/): the same description, plus how the record is kept.
- [llms-full.txt](https://degenhedge.com/llms-full.txt): the text of every public page in one file, for assistants that want more than this summary.

## Product
- [BTC offer and real alert examples](https://degenhedge.com/btc/): the current BTC subscription, one actual losing and one actual winning historical alert, complete-record links, and Telegram setup instructions. Examples are reconstructed from the public log, not screenshots or executed trades. The underlying [example JSON](https://degenhedge.com/btc/sample.json) is public. New-customer trial eligibility is checked before payment; do not promise repeat free trials.
- [DegenHedge home](https://degenhedge.com/): the Kalshi BTC 15-minute Telegram feed (our model's read beside the live price, about two minutes before each window closes, every call graded in public), plus in-game NFL, MLB and NBA alerts. For eligible new customers, 30 days free with a card, then $4.99 a month per available feed until canceled. MLB is not on sale until the 2027 season, and NBA is not on sale. Around-the-clock monitoring, delivered to Telegram. Our current BTC win rate is close to the breakeven level at recorded entry prices, though still below it before fees.

## Order-book research
- [Do Kalshi alert prices match the order book?](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-alert-prices-and-order-book-depth/): 2,872 observations after 359 MLB/NFL alerts, through October 14. First observed asks exceeded logged prices in 88/295 quoted MLB books and 22/62 NFL books. Quotes are not fills; no BTC execution claim. Full observations, timing, raw bid levels and reproducibility script are public.

## Bitcoin research
- [Are Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets rigged?](https://degenhedge.com/research/are-kalshi-bitcoin-15-minute-markets-rigged/): integrity checks on 27,834 settlements from Kalshi's public API (Jan 10 to Oct 30, 2026). Results follow the published rule (27,406 of 27,407; the exception is a mis-scaled published strike), strikes chain to the previous settlement (27,366 of 27,370), 49.77% Up. Consecutive results lean against streaks (Up after Up 48.05%, Up after Down 51.45%), no larger than the 2c fee on a 50c contract.
- [Can you lose a 99-cent Kalshi contract?](https://degenhedge.com/research/can-you-lose-a-99-cent-kalshi-contract/): 99c asks about 3 minutes before close lost 31 of 3,166 times (0.98%), close to the price; one loss erases 99 wins and a 1c single-contract fee takes the profit at $0.01 non-direct-member precision; direct-member $0.0001 precision gives a different fee.
- [What happens when Bitcoin ends exactly at the strike on Kalshi?](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-bitcoin-exactly-at-the-strike/): a tie resolves Yes (Up). No tie in 27,405 windows; 1 in 117 settled within $1 and 1 in 21 within $5.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets by time of day](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets-by-time-of-day/): volume, moves, near-flat finishes, spreads and price accuracy by ET hour and weekday; no hour beat or missed its price by more than chance.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute fees and the win rate you need to break even](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-btc-15-minute-fees-breakeven/): Kalshi's taker fee at every price, tested on 13,082 graded signals (Mar 24 to Oct 30, 2026). 91.05% won at a 91.60c average entry; no entry-price bucket beat or fell short of its own price by more than chance (largest shortfall: 90-92c, 2.60 standard errors, inside the 2.81 bar).
- [How Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets settle](https://degenhedge.com/research/how-kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets-settle/): 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average; a spot read at the close disagreed with the official result on 4.38% of 20,460 windows (corrected Oct 5, 2026 to use Kalshi's official strike; refreshed through Oct 30); calibration of the Kalshi ask; weekend and time-of-day effects.
- [Polymarket 5-minute vs Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin markets](https://degenhedge.com/research/polymarket-btc-5-minute-vs-kalshi-15-minute/): settlement source, tie rule, fee rounding, and 57,417 officially settled windows.
- [What 9,800 graded Kalshi BTC 15-minute windows show](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets/): October 30 record update: 13,082 graded alerts, 91.05% wins at 91.60c average logged entry, below breakeven before fees. Frozen row-level CSV. The original March–July study remains separately dated.
- [Is Down due after a streak on Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets?](https://degenhedge.com/research/is-bitcoin-due-after-a-streak-on-kalshi/): 26,986 settlements (Jan 10 to Oct 21, 2026). Longest run 16 windows (a fair coin over the same stretches averages 15.0); runs of 5 or more 690 against about 840 for a fair coin; after 4 in a row the next window continued 44.5%. The ask one minute in already leaned the same way, and no row beat its price by more than chance or the fee. CSV.
- [How much can you bet on Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets?](https://degenhedge.com/research/how-much-can-you-bet-on-kalshi-bitcoin/): position accountability level $25,000 per market per member (crypto contract terms, checked Oct 22, 2026); median October 2026 window 2.92 million contracts (January: 15,628); 39.7% of a window's contracts trade in its last three minutes; open interest at settlement median 862,322; a public order-book read on Oct 22 (106 looks over about two hours) found a median 5,512 contracts at the best ask and 24,428 within 3 cents, 1.0-cent median spread. Contracts are not dollars; volume is not edge. CSV.
- [Will Bitcoin go up or down in the next 15 minutes?](https://degenhedge.com/research/will-bitcoin-go-up-or-down-in-the-next-15-minutes/): 20,891 Kalshi KXBTC15M windows with public minute-by-minute prices (Mar 24 to Oct 30, 2026). Up won 49.72%. The side priced as the favorite won 71.25% with 10 minutes left (average ask 70.82c), 82.96% with 5 left (83.02c) and 95.76% with 1 left (95.50c), inside the 2.81-standard-error bar at every one of 10 moments; the underdog came back 17.04% of the time with 5 minutes left. Of 18 price bands, 2 cleared the 2.99 bar (90 to 94c with 10 minutes left: +1.94 points before the fee, +0.94 after a single-contract fee; 95 to 99c with 1 minute left: +0.18 points before the fee, -0.82 after a single-contract fee); one or two bands in 18 can be a fluke, so treat them as a measurement, not a tip. Market data, not our signals. CSV.

## Monthly report
- [State of Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets](https://degenhedge.com/research/state-of-kalshi-btc/): one short report a month on KXBTC15M (windows, contracts traded, Up share, moves from the strike, how well the ask matched outcomes, our graded record), every figure with a CSV row. Latest: [October 2026, month to date through October 30](https://degenhedge.com/research/state-of-kalshi-btc/2026-10/); also [September 2026](https://degenhedge.com/research/state-of-kalshi-btc/2026-09/), with one correction published separately: [correction to the September 2026 report](https://degenhedge.com/research/correction-september-2026-state-of-kalshi-btc/) (its hero sentence had the ask-vs-outcome direction reversed; the favored side won 81.15% at an average 82.90c ask, 1.75 points below its price; the September page stays as published).

Fee calculations distinguish non-direct-member $0.01 balance precision from direct-member $0.0001 precision. The calculator offers both; the API accepts balance_precision=0.01 or 0.0001 and defaults to 0.01 for compatibility. Historical one-contract fee tables retain their stated $0.01 assumption.

## Tools
- [Kalshi fee and breakeven calculator](https://degenhedge.com/tools/kalshi-fee-calculator/): Kalshi's taker fee for any price and size with its exact cent rounding, total cost, breakeven win rate, and our graded record at that price. KXBTC15M carries no maker fee (fee type "quadratic", checked Oct 6, 2026).
- [Current Kalshi BTC 15-minute window, live](https://degenhedge.com/tools/kalshi-btc-15-minute-live/): the window trading now, its official strike (or TBD), countdown, Up/Down asks and a spot reference. Market data only, no prediction.

## Questions
- [How Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets work](https://degenhedge.com/how-kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets-work/): plain explainer of KXBTC15M: 15-minute schedule, strike = 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average before the open, settlement = same average before the close, ties resolve Yes (Up), taker fee 0.07 x C x P x (1 - P) rounded up to the cent, no maker fee on this series (checked Oct 9, 2026).
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute signals and alerts](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-signals/): bots vs dashboards vs Telegram alert feeds, exactly what the DegenHedge feed is and is not, and four checks for any signal service (timestamps, tickers, win rate with entry price, full loss log).
- [Is there an API for Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin markets?](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-api/): Kalshi's public read endpoints for KXBTC15M, plus DegenHedge's read-only API (/api/btc-window, /api/record, /api/kalshi-fee, /results.csv, /openapi.json) and MCP server (https://degenhedge.com/mcp).
- [How to verify a signal service](https://degenhedge.com/how-to-verify-a-signal-service/): six-point checklist for any betting or prediction-market signal service, with the extra checks for Kalshi BTC 15-minute alert feeds.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute strategy: what the data says](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-strategy/): fees, breakeven, 99c contracts, near-strike finishes, time of day and streaks; no strategy in our data beat the price after fees.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute bots](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-bot/): trading bots, indicators and alert bots; what ours does (a timed Telegram alert, graded in public) and does not do (trade for you, beat the price).
- [Kalshi vs Polymarket for Bitcoin](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket-bitcoin/): settlement source (CF Benchmarks BRTI vs Chainlink), tie rule, fee rounding, maker fees and access.
- [Can you bet on NFL games live on Kalshi?](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-nfl-in-game-trading/): KXNFLGAME rules (one $1 contract per team, overtime counts, a tie pays $0.50 to each side, 48-hour postponement rule, taker and maker fees), how the in-game price moves, and our NFL alert record read with its average entry price (live figures on the results log). The season replay at the live gate: 60.9% of 225 graded signals at a 62.5c average entry, 1.6 points below breakeven before fees.
- [Does a high win rate make money on Kalshi?](https://degenhedge.com/does-a-high-win-rate-make-money-on-kalshi/): plain-English answer: the price is the win rate you need (92c needs 92% before the fee), a payout table at 50 to 99c with Kalshi's single-contract fee, and our BTC record read with its price: 13,082 graded alerts through Oct 30, 2026 won 91.05% at 91.60c, 0.55 points below breakeven before fees; by price band, none of them beat or missed its own price by more than normal luck explains.

## API and machine-readable data
- [API docs](https://degenhedge.com/api/): free, read-only JSON for Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute markets. No key, no personal data, CORS open, 60 requests a minute per IP.
- [OpenAPI 3.1 description](https://degenhedge.com/openapi.json): every public JSON endpoint and its fields.
- [GET /api/btc-window](https://degenhedge.com/api/btc-window): the KXBTC15M window trading now (ticker, close time, official strike, Up/Down asks, Kalshi's live fee schedule). Kalshi public data only; no prediction.
- [GET /api/record](https://degenhedge.com/api/record): our graded BTC alert record, overall and by entry price, each row with its average entry, breakeven before and after fees, Wilson interval and data-through date. Quote the win rate with its entry price.
- [GET /api/kalshi-fee?price=95&contracts=10](https://degenhedge.com/api/kalshi-fee?price=95&contracts=10): Kalshi's taker fee for a price in cents and an order size, with exact cent rounding, total cost and breakeven.
- [Remote MCP server](https://degenhedge.com/api/#mcp): https://degenhedge.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, POST, no key) with read-only tools get_btc_window, get_graded_record and kalshi_fee. Registry name com.degenhedge/kalshi-btc; server card at https://degenhedge.com/mcp/server-card. Supports protocol 2026-07-28 and the initialize-based 2025 versions.
- [Agent skill: degenhedge-kalshi-btc](https://degenhedge.com/skills/degenhedge-kalshi-btc/SKILL.md): a drop-in SKILL.md in the Agent Skills format (OpenClaw, Hermes, Claude Code and compatible agents) for the read-only API: the endpoints, how to quote the record together with its entry price, and the human-only signup step.

## Data
- [Results log](https://degenhedge.com/results/): every graded signal, wins and losses, with entry price.
- [results.csv](https://degenhedge.com/results.csv): the full graded log as CSV.
- [Open dataset on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/DegenHedge/kalshi-btc-15m): every Kalshi KXBTC15M window Jan 10 to Oct 4, 2026 (official strike, settlement value, result, contracts traded) and our 11,541 graded BTC signals, CSV + Parquet with data dictionary and methodology. CC BY 4.0, version v2026.10.
- [Research index](https://degenhedge.com/research/): all studies, including the NFL repricing study.

## Method and risk
- [The Method](https://degenhedge.com/method/): how the models work and how signals are graded.
- [Risk](https://degenhedge.com/risk/): breakeven arithmetic against our own record.
- [The Kalshi lag, retired](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-lag/): a thesis we tested against our own order-book data and withdrew.

## Optional
- [Kalshi signals, explained](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-signals/): what a graded, pre-committed signal is.
- [Free proof channel](https://t.me/DegenHedgeProof): Bitcoin (KXBTC15M) calls as graded recaps every 3 hours, each posted only after every window in its 3-hour block has closed (never live); every NFL signal posted in full 12 minutes after it fires; every 2026 MLB signal was posted 10 minutes after it fired with the side hidden until it was graded at settlement (MLB is not on sale until the 2027 season). Every signal is also in the results log and results.csv.